The bearish technical picture for Palladium which has been in force since 2021 seems to be losing momentum. A golden cross formation took place in early October 2024 and lead to a price spark toward $1245 a few weeks later. The current price is $1030 and above the 200 day< rising moving average of $986.
Palladium is still forecast to transition into a market surplus, according to the World Platinum Investment Council review from May 2024 but this is delayed by a year to 2026 and the deficit in 2024 is increased by over 1 Moz to 1,281 koz. Both changes are supply driven, with mine supply expectations cut back by producer restructuring and maintenance, and recycling supply growth being delayed. Indeed, the projected transition to a surplus is entirely contingent on a significant increase to recycling (up by >1.3 Moz p.a. by 2028), but this outlook is predicated on a number of challenges being resolved. Any delays to solving these issues could easily slow the pace of the growth in recycling supply, resulting in deeper and more persistent deficits and further postpone the surplus. This would in turn feed into value expectations and provide upward support for palladium prices.
The MACD-V Bearish divergence in the weekly Gold to Palladium ratio suggests that a recovery in Palladium could be unfolding and should be monitored closely in the weeks to come.
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